While the 2M alliance will be dissolved by the end of next year, the current MSC and Maersk fleets have "decoupled" to deploy ships on their respective routes.

    This has led to speculation that the two shipping companies will agree to end the alliance's ship sharing alliance early.

    "Previously, the service was operated by a mix of MSC and Maersk vessels, which has gradually changed to leaving only one vessel operator per loop," Alphaliner said.

    For example, on the Asia-Nordic trade route, eeSea data confirms that Maersk is the sole ship operator on the AE5/Albatross, AE10/Silk and AE7/Condor routes, while MSC is the ship operator on the AE55/Griffin and AE6/Lion routes. In addition, the Mediterranean shipping company has its own independent Swan service.

    MSC, which currently has a fleet of 5.5 million TEU capacity and a huge order book of around 1.5 million TEU, has taken delivery of two newly built 24,000 TEU very large vessels this month, which will be able to operate independently at short notice if needed.

    According to Alphaliner's report, Maersk's new methanol-powered vessels will begin delivery next year, and the company does not want to share these vessels with other shipping companies, and can support its independent east-West trade service network.

    In fact, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc has repeatedly said that the company is not seeking to join or form another ship-sharing alliance, as the ship-sharing agreement does not fit with the company's vision of becoming a global integrated service provider.

    "The dissolution of the 2M alliance will bring deep structural changes to the liner market," Alphaliner said. The agency also assessed the future prospects of two other shipping alliances. THE Ocean Alliance, formed by CMA CGM, COSCO (including OOCL) and Evergreen, is already the largest ship-sharing alliance with a combined shared capacity of 4.22 million TEU, while The Alliance's partners Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Yangming and HMM have a combined shared capacity of about 3.1 million TEU. The total shared capacity is comparable to that of the 2M alliance.

    In addition, Ocean Alliance members have a large order book of vessels, with 2.38 million TEU to be delivered from next year, including 36 very large vessels, which will be put into the Asia-Europe trade route.

    Despite the European Commission's recent decision not to renew the Union Block Exemption Regulation (CBER) for liner traffic next April, shipping alliances will remain a legal way for carriers to work together, but Alphaliner speculates whether the planned massive expansion of Ocean alliances will be a tough test of the new regulatory order.

    Alphaliner said it could "be a test case of how large alliances are allowed to grow."