Freight rates are up! Maersk: Raised full-year guidance, the Red Sea crisis will continue until the end of the year

    Maersk said the disruption to shipping from the Red Sea crisis was expected to continue until the end of the year. Despite a sharp drop in earnings last quarter, the Danish shipping giant still beat expectations and raised its full-year profit forecast as a result.

    Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, said demand for container shipping was strong and expected to grow at the high end of its forecast range of 2.5 to 4.5 percent this year as ships avoid the Red Sea and bypass Africa. Based on this optimistic outlook, Maersk raised its full-year 2024 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) forecast to between $4 billion and $6 billion, well above its previous forecast range of $1 billion to $6 billion.

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    First-quarter EBITDA fell to $1.59 billion from $3.97 billion in the same period last year, but still topped analysts' forecasts of $1.46 billion. Since December, Maersk and its peers have chosen to bypass Africa to avoid the risk of container liners in the Red Sea, causing freight rates to rise with longer voyages.

    Maersk Chief Executive Vincent Clerc said the strategy not only undergird the company's recovery in the first quarter, but also improves the outlook for the coming quarters. In an interview with the Financial Times, he said there was no sign of any easing of tensions in the Red Sea and predicted the situation would continue until at least the second half of the year. Therefore, it is not optimistic about returning to the Red Sea-Suez Canal in the near future.

    However, Mr Cowen also warned that while the market was performing well, there would be overcapacity this year and next as new container ships were launched, adversely affecting shipping lines' earnings. Spot freight rates, which tripled to nearly $3,500 per container at the start of the year, have since slowed, he said. Bernstein analysts predict that the container fleet will grow 15 percent by 2024 to 2025, leading to a glut of capacity.

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    In response to the "Dali" wheel crash of the Baltimore bridge accident, Maersk's chief executive officer Ko Wensheng said at the company's quarterly results press conference that the US investigation is still ongoing, and Maersk does not expect to assume any financial responsibility for the incident. He stressed that as the investigation progresses, new facts may be revealed, but nothing has been found that points to Maersk's responsibility.

    In addition, Marski also mentioned that the ship's owner, Grace Ocean, has declared general average, meaning that all cargo on board the "Dali" is being held as part of the legal process to allocate the costs of the accident. As things stand, the cost of compensation related to bridge collisions is expected to be close to $4 billion, meaning that all parties involved, including shipowners, operators, charterers and shippers, will need to contribute to cover costs related to the accident.

2024-05-06来源:航运在线

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