After mid-to-late July or will enter the typhoon active period 3, 4, 5 typhoon may follow. This year's typhoon hit late, since the early June typhoon "Malis" stopped numbering, there has been no typhoon for more than a month. The average number of typhoons in June is 1.7, which is less this year. July is a month with the most typhoons landing in China all year round, and it has entered the second week of July, when will the typhoon come? According to the current medium-term forecast, it is expected that from mid-July, tropical convection over the South China Sea and east of the northern Philippines will become active, and a typhoon may be generated in the mid-late period.

    The current GFS US numerical forecast and the EC European Central Numerical forecast both support the development of a low pressure system this weekend. However, whether it can develop into a typhoon is greatly affected by the location and intensity of the subtropical high. If the late subtropical high is stronger and westward, it will occupy the space for typhoon development, and it may be near to be weak or absent. If the late subtropical high rises to the north but does not extend significantly to the west, the east wind and the southwest wind of the monsoon on the south side of the subtropical high will form a vortex, which is conducive to the formation of typhoons. After the formation of typhoons, it may affect Hainan around the 15th day and have a certain impact on South China, but it is expected to mainly affect the circulation, and the overall impact is not large.

    More noteworthy is that after July 19, the central region of the northwest Pacific will have an outbreak, there may be two typhoons followed by the generation, according to the GFS US numerical forecast, the South China Sea may have a typhoon this weekend (July 13 ~ 14), if the generation of westward Vietnam, but the circulation will affect China's Hainan. Then it may be regenerated into a new typhoon, may land in South China, need to be vigilant!

    Judging from the current trend, the third typhoon "Gamme", the fourth typhoon "Papian" and the fifth typhoon "Maria" may be generated successively in the late July.