Former U.S. President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, has surpassed the 270 electoral votes needed to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, multiple U.S. media reported on Tuesday (local time). In addition, Republicans will take control of the Senate with at least 52 seats, giving them a majority.

    Trump delivered his victory speech in the early morning of Saturday. US President Joe Biden and current Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris both called Trump to congratulate him on his victory.

    Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election has triggered a ripple effect in the container shipping industry, which is seen as a potential risk to international trade.

    As of early Wednesday morning, shares of well-known shipping companies such as AP Møller Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM were down 7-8%.

    Industry experts have warned that the political shift could trigger another spike in shipping container rates, reminiscent of the spike in tariffs in 2018.

    Xeneta, a maritime benchmarking company, said Trump's campaign promises set the stage for a drastic overhaul of U.S. trade policy. The president-elect has promised to impose tariffs of up to 20 percent on all goods imported into the United States and more stringent tariffs of 60 to 100 percent on goods from China.

    The proposed measures have raised alarm among importers and shipping industry analysts.

    "Shipping is a global industry that relies on international trade, so the re-election of President Trump is a step in the wrong direction," said Peter Sand, principal analyst at Xeneta.

    The immediate impact of Trump's victory is expected to be felt in the rush to bring forward imports.

    "The knee-jerk reaction of U.S. shippers was to bring forward imports before Trump was able to impose new tariffs," Sander explained. He noted that there is more incentive for such pre-emptive action now, with proposed tariffs on Chinese imports likely to reach 100 percent, compared with 25 percent in 2018.

    While bringing forward imports may seem like a logical short-term strategy for businesses, Sander warns that there are potential pitfalls. "At a time when ocean supply chains are already under pressure from disruptions in the Red Sea, a sudden increase in demand from major trade routes into the United States would put upward pressure on freight rates," he warned.

    A surge in demand could exacerbate existing supply chain challenges, leading to further rate increases and potential disruptions.

    Historical data bear out these fears. During Trump's first term in 2018, shipping container rates soared 70 percent due to rising tariffs. The industry is now bracing itself for a possible repeat or even escalation.

    The long-term outlook seems equally challenging. Sander predicted that "the re-election of President Trump will reignite the trade war with China and trigger retaliation." This escalation could create a feedback loop of increased tariffs and trade barriers, further straining international commerce and shipping operations.

    Current market indicators already reflect the tense situation. While spot rates from the Far East to the US coast remained relatively stable in the run-up to the election, they were significantly higher than last year, 167% higher on the west coast and 134% higher on the East Coast. The main reason for these rises is the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea, highlighting the fragility of the global shipping network.

    "The re-election of Trump as president will not be welcomed by U.S. importers and exporters, but they need a quick and clear result from the election." Uncertainty is toxic for supply chains, so at least the industry now has a clearer picture of the financial and operational risks and can execute the plans they have prepared for another Trump presidency, "Sander concluded.

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