America's "scramble for goods" under the Global Trade Crisis

    As US President-elect Trump is about to enter the White House again, a unique "grab war" is brewing in the field of global trade. During his campaign, Trump advocated imposing tariffs of 10 to 20 per cent on all imports, a policy that has prompted US importers, businesses and consumers to respond to the risk of possible price increases.

    Tariff policy anticipation and enterprise stockpiling

    Trump's tariff policy has attracted widespread attention during the election campaign. Typically, tariff costs are borne by importers, and those costs are likely to be passed on to consumers in the form of higher product prices. To avoid this risk, US companies and consumers have recently embarked on large-scale advance purchases.

    According to the US news website Business Insider, some small businesses and large manufacturers are actively stocking up. For example, Barba, the owner of a small business that makes eco-friendly cups, said she was considering purchasing a full year's worth of inventory in advance to prepare for a possible tariff hike. Yedi, a home appliance company based in Los Angeles, also said it was racing to source appliances from overseas for emergencies.

    Consumer hoarding and social media reaction

    Not only businesses, but also U.S. consumers have begun to stock up on a wide range of goods in response to price pressures from possible tariff increases. Videos teaching people to stock up have gone viral on social media, advising consumers to buy cosmetics, clothing, home appliances, food and other goods in advance. The videos received tens of thousands of likes on social media and sparked panic in the comments section.

    The impact on the pace of Fed rate cuts

    Stockpiling by U.S. businesses and consumers is expected to lead to a surge in U.S. foreign trade activity by the end of the year. The analysis pointed out that this active foreign trade activity may have an impact on the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at the Center for Financial Research and Analysis, said U.S. import and export activity could be stronger than expected by the end of the year, which could give the Federal Reserve a reason to pause or slow the pace of interest rate cuts.

    The actual impact and uncertainty of Trump's tariffs

    Although Trump's expected tariff policy has triggered widespread concern and response measures, there is still uncertainty about the specific policy details and implementation effects. What kind of tariff policy Trump will introduce, and how much it will be, still need to wait until January next year to see his actual action.

    In addition, the analysis also pointed out that the tariff policy advocated by Trump in the election campaign may actually have the effect of dragging down GDP growth. Given that many of Trump's campaign contributions come from Wall Street, analysts believe that he is unlikely to do anything to disrupt the market, and may be more of a negotiating strategy with other countries.

    Other factors and tariff support

    At present, the Trump administration's inauguration and planned tariff policy, the risk of strikes by tens of thousands of dockworkers in the eastern port of the United States and the expected surge in imports before the Lunar New Year are intertwined with multiple factors, which may form a certain support for freight rates. Under the combined effect of these factors, the global trade field is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities.

    The "grab war" triggered by Trump's upcoming re-election as president of the United States not only reflects the concerns and responses of American enterprises and consumers to the expected tariff policy, but also reveals the complexity and dynamics of the global trade field in the uncertainty. In the future, with the introduction and implementation of Trump's specific tariff policies, the global trade field may usher in more intense competition and change.

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