After most of Trump's global tariffs were ruled illegal, the market was closely watching whether the US Supreme Court would "step in".

    According to CCTV News, on the 7th local time, US Treasury Secretary Bassent said in an interview with the media that if the US Supreme Court upholds the ruling that the US government's tariff measures are illegal, the US Treasury Department will have to refund approximately half of the tariffs that have already been levied. And this consequence would be "catastrophic".

    On August 29th, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the current tariff policy would remain in effect until October 14th, allowing the Trump administration to file an appeal with the Supreme Court.

    As mentioned earlier by Wall Street Insight, if the Supreme Court does not intervene by October 14, the ruling made on August 29 will take effect, and the tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) will automatically become invalid; if the Supreme Court decides to accept the case, oral arguments may be held in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the final ruling is expected to be made in the first quarter of 2026.

    The rulings of other circuit courts may also affect the situation. The Ninth Circuit Court and the District of Columbia Circuit Court, which is considered friendly to Trump, will respectively hear the relevant cases on September 17th and September 30th. If there is a "circuit court divergence" that contradicts the appellate court's decision, it will significantly increase the pressure on the Supreme Court to hear the case.

    Furthermore, even though there are restrictions on its use under the IEEPA, the Trump administration still has other tools to maintain the tariff pressure. According to analysis, the government may turn to the following legal authorizations:

1. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act: Allows the imposition of tariffs on "strategic industries" such as steel, chips, electric vehicle batteries, and medicines, on the grounds of "national security".

2. Article 122 of the Trade Law: The President is authorized to impose a maximum 15% tariff on all imported goods during an emergency, for a maximum period of 150 days.

3. Section 338 of the Tariff Act: Allows for the imposition of a maximum retaliatory tariff of 50% after the investigation.

4. Section 301 of the Trade Law.

    The analysis indicates that even if the Supreme Court ultimately rules against the White House, the Trump administration may still be able to make up for the expected loss of approximately $150 billion in revenue by selectively increasing tariffs.

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